He unspools a lengthy narrative about the political forces that shaped those exports — the 18th-century mercantilism of the British empire, then free trade with the mothership, then tariffs, then more free trade, albeit with the U.S. The latter is a history that begins with the “reciprocity” deals negotiated in the late 19th century and continues through the mid-1960s Autopact, the 1988 Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA and CUSMA. Yet over decades of policy gyrations, north-south trade remains a constant. As recently as the early 1980s, interprovincial trade accounted for a larger portion of Canada’s GDP than our exports. But the trendlines crossed with the early 1990s adoption of NAFTA and now we are far more dependent on shipping goods into the U.S. and overseas than to other parts of the country.

During his time in office, former prime minister Stephen Harper began weaning Canada of its dependence on the U.S. by signing numerous free trade agreements outside North America. Mark Carney continues this work, seeking new arrangements with India, South America and the European Union, including moves to make Canadian military procurement less oriented towards U.S. defence contractors, notes Anastakis.

However, Carney is working against two centuries of precedence and deep economic integration between neighbours, says Anastakis. ”We’re not going to wake up in five or 10 or 15 years and suddenly the export balance is 60 per cent or less with the United States. That would be an incredibly disruptive and costly way of doing things.