Kelp decline and resilience to the climate crisis
As individuals in a kelp forest die, fewer are left to reproduce. Therefore, the amount of genetic variation in the population declines. This causes a phenomenon called genetic drift. “There are random changes from one generation to the next, and by random chance, you start to lose some genetic variation,” explains Bemmels. Variation is lost more quickly in smaller kelp populations than in larger populations. With variation loss, there is less genetic diversity to work with to adapt to changes, he continues. This lack of genetic diversity limits kelp’s ability to face climate change. These genetic factors are, as Bemmels shows, much more important to kelp conservation than researchers had previously understood.
Recent data, including a study published in Scientific Reports, suggests that some kelp populations may be more resilient to climate change than others, potentially due to patterns of genetic diversity. Dr. Loren Rieseberg and Dr. Fernando Hernández of the Rieseberg Lab at the University of British Columbia are studying the genetic factors that contribute to this resilience. Bemmels points out that for genomic-led restoration to work, “we would need to know what climate variables matter.” Hernández’s team at UBC has figured that out through models linking patterns of genome variations to corresponding environmental factors, thereby explaining how kelp may adapt to their environment.
Beyond understanding how the environment affects genomic adaptation, Hernández explains that they can predict the survival of future populations through models that estimate a statistic called genomic offset. “We have a genotype adapted to today’s conditions, and for conditions in 50 years, we know the environment, so what is the genotype we need to be adapted to these conditions? We measure the genetic distance between them,” says Hernández. “If genetic distance is very low, the population will likely thrive, but if the distance is large, it means that this genotype will probably not survive.” Hernández points out that this will show researchers which populations should be made a priority.
Future-adapted populations may hold the key to restoration efforts aimed at replanting kelp. The next step is integrating new genetic information with existing kelp restoration to create a well-rounded, long-lasting approach to protecting kelp ecosystems.